Insane hail

Just a quick post before class to show how freaking huge the hail here is!
Just for reference : those sausage-like fingers belong to a hand that can easily palm a basketball!
Like I said: HUGE HAIL!
Run for your life!















Another strong weather system will be marching towards the area, and it appears thunderstorms are likely Tuesday PM.  Unlike the last system for Northwest Arkansas last Thursday, this one will have ABUNDANT surface moisture to work with and by the afternoon the instability will be very high across the entire area.  This means that when thunderstorms develop, they will quickly become severe.  The jet stream for this system is another negatively-tilted trough, but not the well-defined "ski jump" jet stream we saw with last Thursday's system. 
So here is the breakdown:
What is the threat?:  With this system the main threats will be VERY LARGE HAIL (over 2.5" (tennis ball) in diameter and a potentially significant damaging straight-line wind event.  The tornado threat will exist for storms when the initially form, but I'm not as impressed with the tornado potential with this system.  The low races east and the shear quickly doesn't line up for tornadoes.
When will the storms form?:  This is tricky one with this system, but it appears thunderstorm initiation will be much sooner than Thursday's system.  I'm still getting mixed signals from the computer models, but I believe initiation will occur along the dryline/cold front/surface low triple point around 4 PM and this will make it into Northwest Arkansas around 6 to 8 PM.  I don't think this event will last much past 10 PM unless the speed of the cold front dramatically changes and slows down.  The latest forecasts are pushing the front in even faster and don't develop a whole lot of storms along it.... we'll see.
Where is the greatest threat?:  Our entire area is under a severe weather threat, due the fast moving nature of this system and the tremendous instability over the area.  I have a feeling more trouble for the River Valley again.  The storms will form much closer to the Oklahoma/Arkansas border this time unlike Thursday night's system.  The tornado potential looks to be much higher for SE MO and southern IL.  Here is a look at the threat for our area... hatched wind and hail (meaning significant hail and wind) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Why do we have the threat?:  One word instability from the deep moisture in place.  The cold front moving in from the NW will cause storms to develop and that instability will fuel the storms.
Questions that remain?:  Timing is major question, but all signs point to a late afternoon to early evening event.  Some computer model forecasts don't break out a whole lot of storm... so will storms remain capped over the area?  Doubt it.  How fast will the cold front catch up with the dryline? 
Bottom line is if or more likely WHEN storms develop... they will very quickly become severe so we need to be ready at the latest by 3 PM.

Comments

  1. i hope you dont leave your car outside,

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  2. hail sucks. thanks for the black on black text

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  3. thanks god the worst it gets in palmdale in some light snow. hail is like snow but not as fun.

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  4. Holy crap man! Stay the hell inside!

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  5. WOW thats gotta be some dangerous stuff!

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  6. That is seriously dangerous.
    When I traveled to south america some years ago I had to run and cover under a roof since it started raining potato-sized hails.

    Scary as f***

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  7. damn man, all we got was terrible rain and flooding, town over from me got a tornado

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